In this article Dan Miles discusses why predictions remain as unreliable as ever, particularly when it comes to complex systems. Looking back at the predictions made prior to the COVID-19 pandemic show how much uncertainty is often attached to short term forecasts. This is why Innova forecast over the long term and not the short term, and when we do incorporate shorter term forecasts into our process, we attach a much lower level of confidence to these than our 10 year forecasts.
Portfolio Insights September 2021 – Why predictions are dangerous
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