Key Takeaways:

  • 2023 has seen two major narratives: the anticipated global recession and the AI-driven equity rally.
  • Equity markets have rallied, fuelled by optimism surrounding AI and specific sectors, while defensive sectors have lagged.
  • Discrepancies between market behaviour and leading economic indicators raise concerns and call for a cautious approach.
  • The economic outlook points to a slower economy and a potential recession, potentially leading to volatility in equity markets.
  • Multiple leading indicators suggest a high probability of a US recession, but this is not yet reflected in market prices.
  • Equity markets appear expensive based on various valuation metrics, while bond market volatility warrants caution.